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HomeProperty InvestmentVirginia Housing Market: Costs & Forecast 2022-2023

Virginia Housing Market: Costs & Forecast 2022-2023


Virginia’s housing market rebounded strongly within the spring of 2020 after a steep decline. In 2021, the recent housing market continued to be fueled by robust demand, low mortgage charges, and a development towards working from house. In 2022, there’s a lower in gross sales exercise, owing largely to elevated affordability points, extended low stock, and a significant enhance in mortgage charges.

In line with the July 2022 Virginia house gross sales report launched by Virginia REALTORS®, there have been 11,346 houses bought in Virginia in July 2022. That is practically 26% fewer than July 2021, the sharpest year-over-year drop in additional than seven years. General, gross sales exercise has been moderating from final 12 months’s degree in Virginia since final fall.

Dwelling costs are nonetheless rising in Virginia. Whereas whole gross sales exercise continues to say no considerably, house costs in the marketplace proceed to rise. In July, the median gross sales value in Virginia elevated by $25,000, or over 7%, to $385,000. Whereas the statewide stock of houses in Virginia stays low, lively listings are rising in quite a few native housing markets throughout the state. Roughly half of the state’s counties and cities had extra lively listings on the finish of July in comparison with the identical time final 12 months.

Whereas costs are nonetheless rising, proof implies the uptrend is fading. In most value teams, houses promote for greater than the asking value. The forecast is that value progress will average as market exercise cools. The state’s common sold-to-ask value ratio was 101.2%, down from 102.4% the earlier month and 101.8% final July.

In line with the nationwide property dealer, Redfin, the house costs within the Virginia housing market have been up 4.7% year-over-year in August 2022. The variety of houses bought fell 20.4% and the variety of houses on the market fell 26.2%.

  • 41% Houses Bought Above Record Worth in August.
  • 35.6% Houses Bought with Worth Drops.
  • Sale-to-Record Worth was 100.3%
  • The housing provide is scarce within the Virginia housing market.
  • # of Houses on the market have been down 26.2 p.c year-over-year.
  • # of newly listed houses on the market have been additionally down 27.8 p.c year-over-year.
  • Months of provide is simply 1.0 months.
  • The median days on market have been 22, down by 5 days.

High 5 Metros within the Virginia housing market with the Quickest Rising Gross sales Worth:

Idylwood, VA (+48.6%): In August 2022, Idylwood house costs have been up 48.6% in comparison with final 12 months, promoting for a median value of $590K. On common, houses in Idylwood promote after 36 days in the marketplace in comparison with 39 days final 12 months. There have been 23 houses bought in August this 12 months, down from 27 final 12 months.

Forest, VA (+47.5%): In August 2022, Forest house costs have been up 47.5% in comparison with final 12 months, promoting for a median value of $442K. On common, houses in Forest promote after 13 days in the marketplace in comparison with 50 days final 12 months. There have been 26 houses bought in August this 12 months, down from 35 final 12 months.

Lansdowne, VA (+45.1%): In August 2022, Lansdowne house costs have been up 45.1% in comparison with final 12 months, promoting for a median value of $755K. On common, houses in Lansdowne promote after 22 days in the marketplace in comparison with 11 days final 12 months. There have been 21 houses bought in August this 12 months, up from 20 final 12 months.

Crozet, VA (+39.5%): In August 2022, Crozet house costs have been up 39.5% in comparison with final 12 months, promoting for a median value of $607K. On common, houses in Crozet promote after 8 days in the marketplace in comparison with 89 days final 12 months. There have been 27 houses bought in August this 12 months, down from 44 final 12 months.

Smithfield, VA (+32.7%): In August 2022, Smithfield house costs have been up 32.7% in comparison with final 12 months, promoting for a median value of $365K. On common, houses in Smithfield promote after 26 days in the marketplace in comparison with 34 days final 12 months. There have been 29 houses bought in August this 12 months, up from 21 final 12 months.

Virginia Actual Property Appreciation & Forecast 2023

Virginia is presently a vendor’s market, with houses promoting shortly and for greater than they’re value. In line with Zillow, the standard house worth (or ZHVI) in Virginia is $376,644. Virginia house values have gone up 11% over the previous 12 months. Though that is the statewide development, every metropolis and city is exclusive, which is why it is best to seek the advice of with a neighborhood actual property agent to raised perceive developments in your space.

Here is Zillow’s forecast for a number of the metro areas in Virginia. Here is Zillow’s 1-year forecast for a number of the metro areas in Virginia. A number of the MSAs of Virginia are predicted to see house value decline between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023. Large Stone Hole, VA house values are forecasted to see the most important drop of two.6% between August 2022 to August 2023.

Metros in Virginia The place Dwelling Costs Will Decline

  • Large Stone Hole, VA house values are forecasted to drop by 2.6 between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Martinsville, VA house values are forecasted to drop 1.8% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Staunton, VA house values are forecasted to drop 1.0% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Danville, VA house values are forecasted to drop 0.9% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Charlottesville, VA house values are forecasted to drop 0.2% between August 2022 to August 2023.

Metros in Virginia The place Dwelling Costs Will Rise

  • Lynchburg, VA house values are forecasted to rise 0.9% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Richmond, VA house values are forecasted to rise 0.8% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Roanoke, VA house values are forecasted to rise 0.8% between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Winchester, VA house values are forecasted to rise by 0.4 between August 2022 to August 2023.

Metros in Virginia The place Dwelling Costs Will Stay Flat

  • Virginia Seashore, VA house values are forecasted to stay flat between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Blacksburg, VA house values are forecasted to stay flat between August 2022 to August 2023.
  • Harrisonburg, VA house values are forecasted to stay flat between August 2022 to August 2023.

Investing in Virginia actual property is a good suggestion, particularly in Virginia Seashore, Richmond, Yorktown, Cape Charles, Madison, and Arlington the place there’s all the time a excessive demand for housing. In line with Neighborhoodscout, the Virginia actual property APPRECIATION RATE within the earlier 12 months (2021 Q1 – 2022 Q1) was 15.47%. APPRECIATION RATE was 3.0% between 2021 This fall and 2022 Q1. Costs have risen by 23.43% within the final two years and 161.82% since 2000.

  • MEDIAN HOME VALUE: $353,996
  • AVERAGE RENT: $1,841 per thirty days
  • OWNERS = 65%
  • RENTERS = 35%

The High Ten Virginia Cities The place Dwelling Values Have Appreciated the Most Since 2000

  • Yorktown
  • Cape Charles
  • Paris
  • Broad Run
  • Arlington
  • Quantico
  • Madison
  • Vienna
  • Alexandria
  • Brightwood

All-Transactions FHFA Home Worth Index for Virginia (Quarterly)

  • Q2 2022: 642.15
  • Q1 2022: 602.02
  • This fall 2021: 583.35
  • Q3 2021: 569.43
  • Q2 2021: 544.40
Virginia Housing Prices
Supply: FRED

Virginia Housing Forecast (By Virginia REALTORS)

In 2022, Virginia REALTORS® is forecasting that gross sales exercise might be down by nearly a tenth of a p.c as in comparison with final 12 months, due primarily to rising affordability challenges, continued low stock, and an enormous uptick in mortgage charges. Virginia house costs will proceed to rise in 2022, although the speed of value progress will sluggish as demand softens and stock expands a bit.

The group is forecasting that costs might be up by about 4.1% in 2022, making it a extra typical 12 months for value appreciation. New development is predicted to stabilize in 2022 with only a modest enhance within the variety of new houses constructed. In line with Virginia REALTORS, actual property in Arlington and different elements of Northern Virginia has been in excessive demand for years, fueled by robust job progress and excessive family incomes within the metropolitan Washington, D.C. space.

Amazon added gas to this fireplace a couple of years in the past, however it’s now not the one issue. Amazon has introduced new employees to the area. The corporate introduced that it will in the end carry 25,000 to the Amazon HQ2 headquarters. Amazon has employed greater than 3,000 HQ2 staff and was actively hiring one other 2,500 employees. These new Amazon jobs are usually higher-paying—the common annual wage is $150,000. In April 2022, the median gross sales value in Arlington County was $645,000. The typical single-family indifferent house bought for over $1.2 million.

In April, the median gross sales value in 22202, which incorporates Nationwide Touchdown, was $662,500. Nearly all of the encompassing area has skilled double-digit value will increase. Over the previous 12 months, the median value of a house in Arlington and Alexandria has decreased as a consequence of a better proportion of condominium gross sales than single-family houses. Dwelling costs have risen a lot sooner in neighboring Fairfax and Loudoun counties, the place the median costs have been up 10.1% and 18.0% year-over-year, respectively, in April.


Sources:

  • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/sequence/VASTHPI#
  • https://www.zillow.com/va/home-values/
  • https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/va/real-estate
  • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/sequence/ACTLISCOUVA#
  • https://www.redfin.com/state/Virginia/housing-market
  • https://virginiarealtors.org/analysis/studies/home-sales-reports/
  • https://virginiarealtors.org/2022/05/25/the-amazon-effect-how-has-hq2-impacted-the-housing-market/
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