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Future Proof Competition
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Given all of the dialogue this week, I believed it might be attention-grabbing to look again on the one instance we now have of a two-quarter contraction in G.D.P. that was *not* labeled a recession by NBER: Q2 and Q3, 1947.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 27, 2022
Uncommon to see: Fed is actively climbing charges (blue line) whereas GDP is contracting (backside) … usually in prior recessions (crimson bars), Fed has been reducing charges as GDP has declined pic.twitter.com/nmrYG3TBc0
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 1, 2022
B of A: “The current debate about whether or not the US is already in a recession is a distraction. Rip roaring payroll, sturdy GDI and robust closing gross sales all recommend ‘recession’ remains to be a forecast, not a actuality.” [Harris] pic.twitter.com/kuKQ9ry8De
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 29, 2022
Enjoyable details: Within the first six months of the 1981-82 recession, we misplaced 1,046k jobs, within the first six months of the 1990-01 recession we misplaced 690k jobs, in 2001 we misplaced 761k jobs, in 2007-09, we misplaced 705k jobs. In 2022 we gained 2,740k jobs.
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) July 29, 2022
Stepping again from the extremely excessive frequency debates this image from @WSJ is a superb reminder of simply how significantly better financial coverage has gotten over the past eighty years in comparison with what got here earlier than. Each higher understanding and institutional progress. https://t.co/RBlb89Z6hT pic.twitter.com/X9p5CLn46I
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 30, 2022
10-year Treasurys recorded the largest one-month yield decline since **March 2020**–Dow Jones Market Information.
At 2.642% at this time
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) July 29, 2022
The S&P 500 gained 3.9% on the day of the Fed hike and following day.
That’s formally the perfect rally after a hike going again to 1970 (Bloomberg knowledge).
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 28, 2022
5. There has by no means been a recession and not using a 4Q GAAP EPS decline. In most recessions, Y/Y EPS progress has ⬇️ <-20%.
That is essential as a result of the market tends to⬆️ quicker when EPS progress is ⬇️(markets anticipate reversals), EXCEPT when EPS progress has been <-20% (SPX -9.8% GPA). 5/5 pic.twitter.com/5NN7K5yAcW— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) July 25, 2022
Proceeds from IPOs of know-how corporations have amounted to $512M, down from $58.7B final yr.
— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) July 27, 2022
mortgage charges have been exceptionally unstable in 2022.
thus far this yr the usual deviation of the weekly change within the 30-year FRM is eighteen foundation factors, highest since 2008 and third highest prior to now half century pic.twitter.com/BlgX03CU7I— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) July 29, 2022
Unimaginable story. Tiger World-backed begin up MissFresh simply advised workers its run out of cash. At similar time, unpaid suppliers have occupied its workplaces in protest. Reminder: was listed at $3bn valuation final yr – in @FT https://t.co/Sfp4OK3wEy
— Murad Ahmed (@muradahmed) July 28, 2022
In the meantime….
The median actual income progress for the FAANG shares has formally turned damaging for the primary time in nearly 2 many years. pic.twitter.com/CAUP6VZQU7
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 29, 2022
*BEST BUY DROPS 11% AS 2Q COMPARABLE SALES TO DECLINE ABOUT 13%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2022
As soon as folks get used to a sure luxurious, they take it with no consideration. Then they start to depend on it. Lastly, they attain some extent the place they will’t reside with out it. pic.twitter.com/4t2hz9xGOE
— Yuval Noah Harari (@harari_yuval) July 12, 2022
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